Global events can sometimes feel far away, but the recent conflict in the Middle East is having a real impact here in the UK – particularly on mortgage rates. If your mortgage deal is ending soon, or you’re thinking about buying your first home or moving, it’s natural to wonder what this means for you.

Below is a clear, client‑friendly explanation of what’s happening, why it matters, and what you can do next.

Until recently, many market participants expected mortgage rates to ease gradually during 2026 as inflation pressures cooled and the Bank of England moved closer to cutting interest rates. However, escalating conflict in the Middle East has disrupted those expectations.

Oil prices have risen sharply since the conflict intensified. Brent crude was trading around $60–70 per barrel earlier in 2026, but following disruption risks in the Gulf region, prices briefly spiked above $110 and have since traded in a volatile $90–105 range.

The conflict has affected shipping and insurance through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for around 20% of global oil and gas flows. Disruption to this route has heightened fears of prolonged energy supply shortages.

Higher oil prices typically feed through into increased costs for transport, energy and everyday goods, which in turn can push inflation expectations higher.

Earlier in the year, financial markets were pricing in several Bank of England rate cuts during 2026. However, rising energy prices and renewed inflation risks have led markets to push back expectations for near‑term rate cuts, with a greater likelihood that interest rates remain higher for longer unless inflation eases meaningfully.

The Bank of England has repeatedly stressed that future interest rate decisions will depend on how inflation evolves, particularly in response to energy‑related price shocks.

Fixed‑rate mortgages are largely priced using swap rates, which reflect expectations of future interest rates. In early March, swap rates and short‑dated government bond (gilt) yields rose sharply amid heightened market volatility, increasing lenders’ funding costs.

Five‑year gilt yields, in particular, moved higher over a short period as investors reassessed inflation and interest‑rate risks linked to the conflict.

In response to rising funding costs, a number of major lenders – including HSBC, NatWest, Nationwide and Coventry Building Society – increased fixed mortgage rates in early March. Lenders cited swap‑rate volatility and global uncertainty linked to the Middle East conflict as key drivers for the repricing.

Industry commentators have warned that frequent repricing may continue while markets remain unsettled.

In the near term, mortgage rates are unlikely to fall materially, and further volatility remains possible if inflation pressures persist. However, there are still sensible options available for those who plan ahead.

Start exploring your options early

Many lenders are adjusting pricing more frequently. Starting the remortgage process three to six months before your deal ends can give you more flexibility and a wider choice of options.

Consider securing a rate now without losing flexibility

Most lenders will allow you to secure a rate now and switch to a better one later if rates improve before completion. This can provide valuable peace of mind during periods of volatility.

Consider whether a tracker mortgage could be suitable

Tracker mortgages often have lower initial rates but will move in line with the Bank of England base rate. They may suit borrowers who feel comfortable with short‑term fluctuations.

Review your loan‑to‑value (LTV)

If your property has risen in value or your mortgage balance has reduced, you may now fall into a lower LTV band, which could give access to more competitive rates.

Avoid rolling onto your lender’s standard variable rate

Standard variable rates (SVRs) are typically much higher than fixed or tracker deals, and allowing your mortgage to revert to the SVR can significantly increase monthly repayments.

Get an agreement in principle (AIP) early

With mortgage pricing changing frequently, having an AIP in place can help you move quickly and secure a deal before rates change again.

Focus on long‑term affordability

Rather than trying to predict short‑term rate movements, it may be more helpful to focus on what you can comfortably afford over the long term.

Explore enhanced affordability products where appropriate

Some lenders offer products designed to support affordability. For example, Nationwide’s Helping Hand mortgage can allow higher loan‑to‑income multiples of up to six times income for eligible borrowers.

Consider rate‑lock features for peace of mind

Some lenders allow you to lock in a rate for up to six months or more, which can help you plan with greater confidence in a changing market.

The outlook for UK mortgage rates will depend largely on how long the Middle East conflict continues to affect global energy markets. If oil prices stabilise and inflation pressures ease, mortgage rates could begin to soften later in the year. If tensions persist, volatility is likely to continue.

For now, staying informed and exploring your options early remains particularly important if your current mortgage deal is due to end soon.

This article has been written by Chase de Vere, who work exclusively with IPSE to provide members with fee‑free, fully independent mortgage advice. If you are an IPSE member and would like to speak with one of their mortgage specialists, you can request a call here:

This article is for information only and does not constitute personal financial advice or a mortgage recommendation. Mortgage suitability depends on your individual circumstances, and you should speak to a qualified mortgage adviser before making any decisions.

Your home may be repossessed if you do not keep up repayments on your mortgage.